Here are a handful of players who played over their heads in the first half and could see the value of their trade plummet in the coming weeks.
Among full-time players, only Paul Goldschmidt He has a bigger gap than Bogaerts between his hit rate and xBA (via Statcast). There is no doubt that Bogaerts is a dependable fantasy option that has been a mainstay on shallow league rosters for many years. But he has so far collected more key strokes than he’s worth, and the change in pace during the second half would also slow his heart rate and sprinting. With seven teammates and only five steals, the Bogaerts need a high hitting mark to make a huge impact in the mixed league.
Machado is a similar case to Bogarts. There is no doubt that Machado is a fantastic player who will have a lot of fantasy value during the second half. But like the Bogaerts, Machado has a huge gap between his hit rate and xBA. There are also concerns about his ability to steal the bases from now on, as a result of the major ankle sprain he suffered towards the end of June (his last steal came on May 20). Machado will generate significant commercial revenue, which may be better than the production he will provide from this point on.
Jeff McNeill (2B/of, New York Mets)
McNeil is another player who has a huge gap between his hit rate of 0.300 and xBA. And in the case of the 30-year-old, the difference between the elite hit mark and the good mark will decide whether or not he belongs to the mixed league rosters. McNeil has shown little to no strength (four smashes) or speed (two steals), making him a worse option than some players in compromises if his hitting average dips.
CJ Crohn (1B, Colorado Rockies)
Cron has been one of baseball’s luckiest hitters so far this season, enjoying a 358 BABIP and an HR/FB of 20.6 percent despite producing an average exit speed of 88.0 mph. Cron will experience a regression somewhat in the second half, and his problems could be even greater if he is traded by the retooled Rockies and Coors Field is no longer his regular background.
Taylor Ward (Los Angeles Angels)
Ward’s 2022 season saw a free landing for several weeks. His impressive success early in the campaign masks his lack of production lately. Wise managers should be able to get a solid return from a defensive player by highlighting his strong overall scores in batting averages (.286), baths (12) and runs (43) while also noting that he consistently hits close to Mike Trout And the Shuhei Ohtani In the assortment of humble angels. All while excluding the fact that Ward has scored a low 605 OPS since the beginning of June, which is troubling for someone who started the year as an afterthought for fictional contributions.
Logan Gilbert (SP, Seattle Mariners)
In general, I am a huge fan of Gilbert, and I want a huge return for his services in the commercial market. But I can’t overlook that Statcast has tied it to 4.24 xERA which is way above its actual mark of 2.76. In fact, among the shooters who have thrown a similar number of roles to Gilbert, only Cole Irvine And the Zach Plisack They have a similar gap between ERA and xERA. Those who have Gilberts and need to handle a horse hitter may choose to dangle from the right hand in trade talks.
Daniel Bard (RP, Colorado Rockies)
I’ve encouraged managers to trade Bard all this season, and so far I’ve been wrong. But I’m sticking to my rifle on this one, as the right-hander has been lucky with ball hits this year (.185 BABIP), which is unusual for someone making half their appearances at Coors Field. Bard has not shown strong handling skills (12.3% walking rate) and these free passes will cause problems once he starts to allow more basic hits. This bus I’d like to get off remains at the next stop.
Scott Barlow (RP, Kansas City Royals), Geovany Soto (RP, Detroit Tigers), Jorge Lopez (RP, Baltimore Orioles), David Bednar (RP, Pittsburgh Pirates), David Robertson (RP, Chicago Cubs)
Most shooters in this large group will be fine, but a couple of them will go from handy closeouts today to compromising wire feed by August 1. They don’t have a level of prestige that automatically makes them the ninth-round men of the opposing team. Each manager will need to decide how much they need to take a chance with these players, and in some scenarios, it will make sense to get as much for them as possible now.